The Use of Geographic Information Systems for Modeling a Structure’s Wildfire Risk: A Study of the Charlotte Fire, Pocatello, Idaho USA

This research focuses on the use of Esri’s ArcFuels and Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory’s FlamMap to produce a wildfire exposure analysis on structures affected by the Charlotte Fire. Exposure analysis involves producing both conditional flame length and burn probability, which are combined to determine a structure’s wildfire risk. The individual datasets within the model were tested for accuracy and influence on structure loss. A one-tailed t-test was used to test if the means were greater for homes with or without loss for conditional flame length, burn probability, slope, and canopy datasets. A Chi-Square test was performed to test for significant differences within the aspect and surface fuel datasets. The results of these analyses were used to illustrate possible limitations within the wildfire model. The results of this study could be used to improve future exposure analyses, data processing, and mitigation planning by wildfire managers through an improved understanding of the limitations and benefits of the FlamMap wildfire models.